More WSOP rants...and some predictions!

Well—here we are after days 1a, 1b, 1c and day 2. It has been quite the rollercoaster ride so far. As I mentioned in my previous post, the notable names that didn’t last 48 hours is incredible. This is a phenomenon I’d like to look further into—Pro’s Busted. Now, this is not to discount the skills and abilities of those professionals—their track records, bracelets, bankrolls, etc. all speak for themselves. However, the game (at least the big tournament game) has definitely changed. The influx of young, brash, internet players is tipping the game on its side. Many tend to throw hand odds, and all “common sense” out the window—only to be rewarded by catching their 3-outer to make their hand. This is not to say—however—that ALL the new young players don’t have talent in their own right. The likes of Scott Fischman, Dutch Boyd, and many others are proving that their success was not fleeting—rather that they may be players to be reckoned with in all venues from here on out.

My overall hypothesis is simple: Each profile of player will have its place in the future of poker. The way I see it, I count three distinct profiles:

• “Internet Newbie”: The newest breed of poker players, raised on Party Poker, Poker Stars, and the like. The majority of these players do not have the level of seriousness, dedication and intestinal fortitude to become key players on the main stages of poker. However, many will find this success—and I guess the opinions will be left up to us as to whether it was ‘luck’ that got them there, or good ole’ poker ability.

• Grizzled Veterans: Thanks to mass media coverage of poker, you know all the familiar faces here: Doyle Brunson, TJ Cloutier, Barry Greenstein, Chip Reese, etc. They all have—very literally—written the book on big-time poker. No matter the game or the stakes, they have seen most everything you can throw at them. These players will continue to be the brightest stars amongst the highest of high stakes cash games. However—their inability to adapt to their surroundings—may cost some of them the legacy they have so desired (read: Phil Hellmuth may never win a another bracelet)

• Poker Hybrid: This group—in my opinion—is best positioned to find great success in future large tournament settings. I believe that a prototype for this player is 2004 WSOP Main Event Champion Greg Raymer. Those who don’t know Greg’s story should read up more on it—but it is this simple: Greg is very seasoned at beating both Internet Newbie’s at their game, and Grizzled Veterans at their game—and his overall method of play has grown out of this experience and success. The subsequent style of play that Greg has adopted truly lends itself to great success in settings like a 5600+ entrant Main Event.

Now that I have bored you with my thoughts on the state of the game, how about a little bit of fun. I know that it is a little late to be making predictions—but based on the way the Main Event has run so far, here are a few predictions (probably sure to go wrong):

• Sammy Farha will not make the final table. Call it my gut, or whatever you will, but I don’t think he can escape the clutches of the unpredictable “call-anythings” that are still lurking in the waters. I will say this—the longer he lasts—and the more inexperienced players he outlasts—the more I like his chances. This may sound like a DUH! type comment, but what I am getting at is I like his chances more against his own kind (Grizzled Veterans in the vernacular I established above), than against the Newbies.

• Greg Raymer and Phil Ivey will make the final table. You can probably see from above why I would say this about Fossilman—so I’ll tell you more about the Ivey pick. Despite not really being a member of the Hybrid group (in my opinion), Phil has done a GREAT job of avoiding any high-risk situations for all his chips against a loose cannon. So long as he can continue this pattern, I like his chances against anyone left.

• NO other “name” players will make the final table. This may seem like another weak prediction, with so many Pros already out. BUT—quite a few are still left, and with pretty significant stacks as well (read: Farha, Watkinson, The Grinder, Layne Flack, etc.). However, similar to Farha—I’m not sold that their style of play has adapted enough to the free-wheeling players that they may run up against. If they can use the free-wheeling nature to their advantage along the way—they may likely prove me wrong. I would like to see it (and I’m sure ESPN would as well), because I think it would make for a far more entertaining TV run.

That’s all for now—have some fun with me and post some reactions to my predictions…either ahead of time (cmon, go out on a limb)…or as they are proven positive or horribly wrong. Let me have it!